Financial design determines the modernisation of thermal installations
The thermal transition depends on technology and regulation, but also on how economic and financial incentives are structured.
Three determining instruments were confirmed in 2025: the progressive deployment of the Energy Saving Certificate (CAE) system; the selective consolidation of ESCO models based on measured performance; and the structural influence of OPEX signals (the electricity/gas ratio and taxation) rather than one-off CAPEX subsidies.
The 2025 Sectoral Observatory for the Spanish thermal and climate control installation market, prepared by AFEC (the Spanish Association of HVAC Equipment Manufacturers), states that financial structures dictate the actual pace at which the national thermal and climate control stock is modernised. The report analyses three determining instruments: the progressive deployment of the CAE system, the selective consolidation of ESCO models based on measured performance, and the structural influence of OPEX signals compared to one-off CAPEX grants.
CAEs and Energy Efficiency
Energy Saving Certificates (CAEs) are a key tool for promoting energy efficiency, as they allow for the quantification, certification and monetisation of the savings obtained through actions in the HVAC sector. This type of financial incentive is more agile than traditional subsidy programs and facilitates a faster rollout of a more sustainable and efficient energy model.
Working alongside MITECO (the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge), "we actively contribute to the proposal, development and updating of CAE sheets and the calculation of standardised actions related to heat pumps, technology hybridisation, ventilation, heat recovery, regulation and control in the residential, tertiary and industrial sectors. Our participation ensures that these standardised measures accurately reflect the sector's savings potential and contribute to meeting decarbonisation targets, thanks to the collaborative work of the experts in the AFEC working groups".
The Energy Saving Certificate (CAE) system, regulated by Royal Decree 36/2023, allows for the monetisation of verified energy savings and their transfer to obligated parties (utilities), introducing a market logic based on certified savings. In this area, growth in 2025 was particularly concentrated in the industrial and tertiary sectors, where the savings intensity per project is highest. The CAE shifts the focus from subsidies to the verification of results, introducing technical discipline and the traceability of savings.
The most common actions within the CAE system linked to HVAC include: replacing fossil-fuel boilers with heat pumps; the modernisation of chillers with high-efficiency equipment; heat recovery in industrial processes; ventilation with thermal recovery and improved control; and the optimisation of control systems and variable frequency drives (VFDs).
In the industrial and tertiary sectors, heat pumps for thermal processes and energy recovery have a high savings intensity per project, which makes them particularly attractive for incentives under the CAE scheme.
ESCOs and Performance Contracts
The ESCO (Energy Service Company) model allows for the financing of projects through guaranteed savings. "A positive trend emerged in 2025, partly driven by CAEs, although transactional barriers persist that hinder the management and profitability of small-scale projects. In these cases, the aggregation of savings and measures is essential for the residential sector to benefit more significantly from the use of CAEs. The model works for projects of a certain size; its widespread adoption requires standardisation and the reduction of contractual friction”
Stability of OPEX Subsidies and Price Signals
According to the observatory, the 2025 market confirms that one-off CAPEX subsidies cause spikes in demand, whereas structural OPEX signals (the electricity/gas ratio and taxation) determine market sustainability. "The CAE introduces a more structural logic but continues to coexist with discontinuous funding rounds".
Among the recommendations for public policy design, the following are noted: "Prioritise stable instruments (the CAE system and coherent taxation); avoid retroactive changes or discontinuous calls for applications; align subsidies with efficient electrification and real emission reductions; and simplify access for SMEs and small-scale retrofitting".