The air-conditioning market continues to show growth through to August
The air-conditioning market in Spain continued to grow up to last August, according to the latest update to the study by AFEC, by its Spanish acronym, which also notes that its development depends on issues such as regulation, economic conditions, financing, technology and implementation capacity progressing in a coherent manner.
AFEC, Asociación de Fabricantes de Equipos de Climatización, has published the August update to its Report on the Heating and Air-Conditioning Installations Market in Spain 2025-Growth and Resilience, together with the first complete version in English. The report combines AFEC’s own statistics with a technical and economic analysis of the Spanish market for air conditioning, ventilation, heat pumps, domestic hot water production, and regulation and control. The analysis also takes into account the key energy, economic, regulatory, climate and construction factors that influence the sector’s development and its prospects.
The statistical data and original analysis remain valid as of the end of February 2026. The new edition also includes a specific update for August, which allows the outlook set out at that time to be compared with developments over the following six months.
Among the issues with the greatest impact on the Spanish market are the review of the performance factors (PEFs) for the energy certification of buildings, taking a forward-looking approach; progress in the implementation of the EPBD; the strengthening of Energy Saving Certificates (CAEs) as a tool to drive forward the electrification of heating, and the publication of the European Commission’s new Electrification Action Plan .
During this period, significant progress has also been made on the ETS2 timetable, the Social Climate Plan, Spain’s adaptation to the new F-Gas Regulation, the European ecodesign requirements for fans, the infrastructure for the Digital Product Passport, the energy efficiency of data centres, and the funding of decarbonised industrial heating projects.
“Developments over the past six months allow us to test the interpretation we put forward in February. There is market momentum, but its development depends on regulation, economic signals, funding, technology and implementation capacity all progressing in a coherent manner. The update incorporates the changes that are already affecting that balance and ensures the report remains a useful tool for interpreting the market”, says Marta San Román, managing director of AFEC.
Growth and transformation
In 2025, the AFEC study recorded aggregate growth of 11.4% in sell-in sales value for the categories analysed. Within this market, air-conditioning systems, heat pumps and DHW production grew by 6.5 %.
The Spanish heat pump market reached 227,524 units in 2025, 14.9 % more than the previous year, with growth across all three technologies covered by the study. Data subsequently published at European level have also confirmed the recovery observed at the time of writing, with growth of 13 % projected for 2025 across the 21 countries analysed.
Looking beyond the figures, AFEC has identified a trend towards facilities that are more integrated, digitalised and focused on performance under real-world operating conditions. Regulation and control, commissioning, interoperability, ventilation, indoor environmental quality and data management are becoming increasingly important in a market where nominal efficiency is insufficient to assess the ultimate performance of systems.
The report also pays particular attention to thermal resilience in the face of increasing episodes of extreme heat, the role of HVAC in buildings and critical infrastructure, the economic drivers shaping electrification, and the capacity of heat pumps and controllable systems to provide flexibility to the energy system.
AFEC Report (August 2026 edition):
https://www.afec.es/visorpdf/mercado/2025/AFEC-Informe-de-mercado-2025-y-coyuntura-sectorial-HVAC.pdf